Strength of Schedule Analysis

One unexplored variable that has large and far-reaching consequences in head-to-head leagues is unbalanced scheduling. Each team in the league gets a home and away with 9 of the teams in the league and single game series with the remaining four teams. Although the Commissioner’s office claims these matchups were randomly assigned, there are some intriguing disparities in strength of schedule.

We have compiled the SOS number in order to help illustrate the disparity. That number is based on the somewhat arbitrary predictions provided by the Commissioner’s preseason report. Each single game series was given a value based on their preseason rankings. FC as the preseason #1 is a 14. El Guap as the small fish in the pond is a 1. The lower the total number, the harder the schedule.

I. SERIOUS DICK IN THE ASS
Lasorda's Manicotti = 20 (BI, PMF, El Guapo & Mother)
Lasorda drew the toughest schedule we’ve ever seen. It scored an astounding 20 on our rating system. His gets two matchups with every contender except PMF. Who wants to play LU, BB, FC & ERdR twice? Nobody. Unfortunately, that’s his draw. His other single game matchups are BI, El Guap and Mothership. Obviously, the Commissioner’s office saw him as a threat and dealt appropriately.
Therefore, look for Lasorda to struggle, but remember his wins are all quality wins and he could “overachieve” his seeding come playoffs. On the flip side, the hard schedule may keep him out of the playoffs all together.

Banana Belt = 22 (Snatties, Flash, VR & BI)
The reigning champion got no favors from the scheduling office. While not quite as tough as LM, it’s splitting hairs to find real difference in difficulty. BB’s schedule is just brutal: FC, LU, LM & ERdR two times. Ouch.
Just like LM, look for BB to struggle out of the gate. Injuries to his staff will be especially damaging considering the level of talent he has to face week in and week out.

unBeleaguerable= 26 (VR, BI, PMF & El Guapo)
This would be a tough but fair schedule or even brutal, if only unBeleaguerable were considered a title contender. Unfortunately, they ain’t. Especially not with this schedule. For unBeleaguerable his patience will be tried with home and aways with the leagues most fearsome teams. Good luck.

El Guapo = 30 (Mother, FC, LM & unBeleaguerable)
For an expansion team, El Guapo sure got fucked. They will match up with every contender twice, except for LM and FC. That may not sound that bad, but considering the projections for Guap, it could get really ugly. This is more glaring when one looks at the cakewalk his fellow expanion team, Mother got. Welcome to the league. Enjoy your stay, it may be a short one.


II. BRUTAL TO BE HONEST
DLBP = 30 (Flash, VR, BI & PMF)
Flash = 31 (DLBP, BB, ERdR & Snatties)
While these schedules are not as tough as those listed right below, these schedules are particularly tough when you consider their preseason projections. These teams were all picked to finish in the bottom half of the league, yet possess two of the toughest schedules. It will be very interesting to see how they respond.


III. TOUGH BUT FAIR
Fecal Clatter = 27 (PMF, El Guapo, Mother, LU)
Lacey Underalls = 28 (ERdR, Mother , Snatties, FC)
Equipe Roi du Radeau = 29 (LU, Snatties, Flash, VR)
Fittingly these title contenders have been stuck with some of the toughest schedules in the league. Of the three, LU’s seems like it may be the easiest, despite their middling score. We feel this due to the fact that Mamma Jams’ team will duck Equipe and FC. But, in the end there really is no difference worth mentioning. We were glad to note that the Commissioner's office didn't give FC a free pass. Not saying we expected any less than top notch integrity, but we wanted to make sure.


IV. JUST ABOUT ON PAR
Bonomatory Influence = 33(LM, unBeleaguerable, DLBP & BB)
The Mothership = 38 (El Guapo, LU, FC & LM)
Snaturals = 39 (BB, ERdR, LU & Flash)
While on the easier side, these schedules of BI seem to be the most balanced. The teams face most of the title contenders and gets a good mix of angels and devils in their single game series. They will finish higher than expected. Go get em Bonomes.
As for Mother and Snatties…they better thank their lucky stars. They got a couple of the easiest schedules we’ve ever seen. They would be considered Cakewalks if their teams had the talent and depth to truly take advantage. However, look for both teams to finish higher than projected. We hope both teams will be able to capitalize on such serendipitous fortune.


V. CAKEWALKS
Vicious Rumors = 32 (unBeleaguerable, DLBP, BB & ERdR)
Poor Man's Fart = 35 (FC, LM, unBeleaguerable & DLBP)
Seriously, PMF and VR might as well pack their bags and head straight to the playoffs. With this gift of a schedule, they have to be favorites to take the regular season title. They duck FC, LM, BB and ERdR between the two of them. While they still get both expansion teams and just about every cellar dwellers twice. They are pretty much playing a AAA schedule. If they fail to make the playoffs it will be an epic chokejob to make Herr Heimlich proud.