Startled your ass, didn't I! My lucrative speaking engagements have me traveling again this week so I'm releasing my Thoughts a bit earlier than usual. It's clear that this column will never be released on a regular schedule.
Here's an opening observation...entering Week 7, LM is tied with Fecal Clatter for first place in the league. My record is 78-43-11, while his record is 77-44-13. Obviously, our records are not the same, yet we share the lead. From this, one can deduce that in terms of LOWV standings, a tie is worth half a win - thus we each have 83.5 "points" (LM: 78+5.5, FC: 77+6.5).
For one thing, this reveals the true point value of a CG SO. When your opponent gets a CG SO in a given week and wins each category 1-0, he doesn't just score two points against you, he actually deducts another point from your total by taking away two ties. Oddly enough, a CG SO in this scenario hurts the team that absorbs it more than it helps the team that gets it - it's a net gain of one point for the team with the CG SO - without it, they had 1 point from 2 ties; with it, they have 2 points from 2 wins - and a net loss of THREE points for the team that it comes against. (I happen to think that counting both of these stats is overkill, but that's a topic for another day.)
One thing I have yet to figure out is the significance of a team's tie totals over a season. Is there any correlation between a team's number of ties and any positive or negative qualities - or is it merely a function of head-to-head luck? Either way I'd guess the 2008 tie totals are too small a sample size to be significant, but I've always suspected that when the season rounds into fullness, that number means something. Send your theories to our mailbag.
LAST WEEK
What a strange and hard-fought game this was. Superstars came up small, pulled up lame, or got rained out. Underrated players stepped up in a big way. Roles were reversed, as each team won categories they seemed to have no business winning. Twelve counting categories were decided by a margin of two or fewer. Arguably, the game came down to the final at-bat of the week - when Joe Nathan got Manny Ramirez to ground into a rally-killing out late on Sunday night, he prevented red-hot Lacey Underalls 1B Justin Morneau (3-3, 2R) from leading off the bottom of the ninth, where he might have affected numerous cats with one swing of the bat.
If you had told me on Monday that my team OPS was going to be .650, I would have immediately changed my identity and moved to Alabama to escape the everlasting shame of it all - no way I could hold Lacey off with an offensive effort that pathetic. What I didn't anticipate is that the LM starters would trounce the LU starters - John Maine and Cliff Lee significantly outperformed Jake Peavy and Felix Hernandez, even though I sit here and read that and have a hard time accepting such a preposterous statement as fact - or that the steady LM bullpen would be pointin and giggling while their LU counterparts were butt-reamed by cruel Fortune. When Papelbon, Broxton and T. Walker combine to surrender 4 losses, we have officially entered the Twilight Zone. Despite an uncanny knack for benching guys just in time for them to have big games, managing my way out of a triple and a win on Sunday alone, I squeezed out enough doubles, homers and steals to win the offensive cats 5-4, which when added to my pitching staff's 6-2 triumph amounted to a solid 11-6 victory over a team we were totally unable to beat last season.
I would be an idiot to gloat, though, because I know how tenuous this win was, and because in the process I lost some key contributors to injury - Vernon Wells is on the DL for a couple of months and Rafael Furcal hasn't played in days with back problems. Like Stonewall Jackson in the Battle of Chancellorsville, they turned the enemy's flank with crucial HRs but fell wounded on the field of battle. Oh the humanity!!
Now a little respect for my vanquished opponent. As has been noted before in this column, Lacey Underalls does not surrender a single category, which makes this team very, very difficult to beat and almost impossible to blow out - you need an equally balanced team and a huge serving of good luck. I got the good luck, but couldn't capitalize - my offense was just flat this week and I had to scrap just to break the weekend-long deadlock. There is so much to like about the Underalls that it's tough to know where to begin: beyond the obvious (Hanley and the aces), there are some really promising young outfielders, the Angel catcher platoon that I haven't heard anyone give proper praise to yet, and let's not forget about Edinson Volquez. After taking a look at the upcoming schedule, my prediction is that LU will soon return to the top spot in the standings.
This game was ugly, but it was a "good game" nonetheless. I believe LOWV teams show their true ability not when everything is clicking, but when things are going wrong. LU and LM faced potentially disastrous weeks with prime categories and players failing us, but each of us managed to battle and grab cats here and there - I just ended up holding more in the end. I offer Mama Jams a tip of the cap; but I fear that my brash trash talk and victorious outcome this week may have fueled a future comeuppance of terrifying proportions.
NEXT WEEK
Two teams loom atop the LOWV standings. Two teams share the lead with 5 head-to-head wins. All that changes after this week - FC and LM will battle to the death!!
(Yeah, you'd better cringe, hideous spawn of Bowa!! Watch out before your muscles tear and tendons pop, from the sheer stress of facing the mighty Manicotti!)
Had we met last week, FC would have come away with a 13-9 victory, led by Jimmy Shields and his CG SO. While we pride ourselves on offense here at LM, there can be no doubt that FC has the premier hitting unit in the league right now. As odd a role as this is for us to play, we can only win this game by dominating on the mound, especially since we aren't facing Johan in a two-start week for once. Is the patchwork, minimum-wage LM staff up to the challenge? Suffice it to say that would-be ace Justin Verlander can make up for six weeks of floundering with a big game against KC tomorrow.
I'm not sure what else to say here. FC has kept a low profile this season, not opening himself up to much in the way of broadsides. His team looks stout and there isn't really anything to criticize there, except his embarrassingly obvious lust for young Caucasian studs, especially Diamondbacks. Suffice it to say, we will seek to obliterate him nonetheless, and as always, I stand ready to pounce on any erroneous statement or foolhardy transgression. I sleep with one eye open, motherfuckers!
INCISIVE OBSERVATIONS
The players currently designated "Keys to Victory", based on appearing most often among the rosters of the Top 500 Public League teams on Yahoo: Beence Beekman (PMF), Hanley Ramirez (LU), Edinson Volquez (LU), Chipper Jones (LM), and Rafael Furcal (LM).
ERdR keeps on rolling, powered by his great pitching staff and FA-of-the-year contender Carlos Quentin. Since it seems that every year a team rises out of Frisco to confound naysayers and doubters, El Guapo must be looking forward to having the city to himself next year...
Seven home runs from Joey Votto and Dan Uggla carried Flash to a rousing victory over unB. The pitching numbers in this matchup were so hideous, they made Lacey's Week 6 pitching stats look divine. Regardless, Stokes Esq. has ascended into playoff position. Just as he was roundly counted out, Flash has built a nice comeback on slugging and saves. I'd say "just wait until he faces a more balanced team," but he beat LU earlier in this season, so there goes that assertion. At this point, The Flash is a name nobody wants to see on their matchup page.
DLBP vs. Snatty: No smoke, no mirrors, just a methodical and textbook-worthy dismantling of a lesser opponent. DLBP is the caballo negro for the title this year, mark mis palabras.
Last week's dullest game pitted tBB against VR in a 10-9 snoozer. This game was held at Lowered Expectations Stadium. A few things jump off the stat sheet: VR's infield is finally living up to its rep, though with a little help from Clint Barmes, in for Tulo. Meanwhile, the Belt's Ubaldo manhandled the Pads with 11 Ks.
As Fukudome goes, so goes the Mothership. Both have been in a protracted slump. Moship's loss to FC wasn't as ugly as the score indicated, but this team must locate some power to get back into playoff contention. The Mothership's slide in the standings might bode well for the Shortpants show, since Mike never really seemed comfortable as an alpha dog and defender of the status quo. From the lottery he can more effectively speak for the little guy. However, his draft picks will soon be looking to change that; he just needs to find the offensive support to counterbalance the boost he'll receive from Kershaw and Adenhart.
If I were PMF, I'd be worried. Last year he missed the playoffs on a heartbreaking final day of the regular season. This year, there are six teams that have established themselves as clear contenders, and PMF is again on the outside looking in - 7.5 games out of 6th place already. Nobody wants to be the king of the also-rans, and it looks like Bobby Walls may be fitted for the crown unless PMF can get off the schneid in 2008. The pitching staff, always the key for this team, looked terrible last week. On the plus side, his offense showed some serious dynamism against Guapo last week, mixing twelve-steal speed with overall hitting prowess. Can his pitching staff overcome their oft-injured ways to carry the Pmmf to the promised pmmffft?
OVERHEARD AROUND THE LEAGUE
"I know you're no fan of VR holding onto Colon...But as you know, VR is in a pretty shitty situation, and the prospect of a quality pitcher soon joining the team is more attractive to me right now than two weeks of FA spot starts...I keep reading that he's close, he's close, he's close... and keep waiting. So all the time I'm thinking I can wait it out, and at this point, I almost feel obligated to hold onto him because I've done so for so long. And I have a feeling my patience will pay off...Also, I suspect there'd be other GMs bidding on Colon when he gets the call, and I'd rather keep him at $3."
This segment is brought to you by the charitable arm of LM, the Tommy Fund, dedicated to helping GMs who have passed through the realm of sanity into the wilderness of serious delusion. I received this email in my mailbag after last week's column and had to shake my head at the flaws in logic exhibited here by Vicious Rumors.
1. First principles - only use a non-DL roster spot on a player you believe can be a true difference maker, either short-term or long-term. For instance, FC grabbed Roger Clemens a few years in a row and this paid off with ace-level performances down the stretch. If Barry Bonds returns as an AL DH, this could provide serious slugging for El Guapo. unB stashed Evan Longoria for the better part of two seasons and is about to reap the rewards. Conversely, Bartolo Colon is not expected by anybody to return to his Cy Young form, and at best will provide some valuable mid-season starts for the Red Sox and spell their young SPs. He is not good enough to merit playing with 24 guys until his return.
2. True, VR is in a shitty situation, but that's no reason to hold onto Colon. If the team's response to adversity is "hold 'em close boys, I'll think of something," then spot starters who can help right the ship are a much better solution than a tubby hurler in his mid-30s mired in AAA. If the response is "Pack it in and play for 2009," better to claim some of the promising age-appropriate AAA players currently available in free agency. It's too early for VR to run up the white flag, I believe, so why not grab guys who can actually help you right now, while you're facing LU and FC in consecutive weeks, instead of waiting for a "savior" who is really only a slight upgrade over Julian Tavarez. Andy Sonnanstine was a step in the right direction here.
3. "I almost feel obligated to hold on to him because I've done so for so long." Speak not these accursed words! While nobody likes to admit a mistake and end up with egg on their face, this is not a valid reason to sustain a dumb roster move. Don't be afraid to cut ties, especially when all you gave up to get him was $3 at the auction.
4. If you want a chubby veteran Red Sox pitcher whose rehab proceeds slowly under a cloud of vagueries, why don't you just get Curt Schilling? At least you can put him on the DL...
5. Drop him. Believe me, nobody will bid on him. Except maybe ERdR, and that just to cause trouble. Pay no mind to that rapscallion. If you want to grab him again when he is actually set to pitch in the majors, fair enough. But wasting a roster spot on this load while he's on a non-DL rehab is an insult to the good name of VR.
Some people will see this segment as wrongheaded charity, helping a team that should be allowed to do this to himself without external check. Others will see it as a wicked plot to get Colon for myself. In fact, it is neither. When I complete my 2008 reign of terror and crush you all under my Italian jackboot, I want it to be despite your best efforts and finest managerial decisions, not because you blundered away a chance at the title with your collective boobery...
DANK FARM NUGS
Two top LM prospects were mentioned in the media in an extremely favorable light this past week...no surprises there.
ESPN fantasy nerd Jason Gray wrote in a chat that "In dynasty formats, I always want the most upside possible...so Kershaw and Porcello. If you want to limit to big leaguers.... Buchholz and Hamels." I like that context, homes, I do indeed.
Jason Heyward led his Rome Braves to Savannah, and the local beat reporter had dick in hand as he wrote this paean: "They'll remember they saw Jason Heyward back when.That's what 2,324 fans at Grayson Stadium on Saturday will be able to say honestly in a few years, most likely when they're watching an Atlanta Braves game. The 18-year-old Heyward, Atlanta's top pick in the amateur draft last year, displayed his considerable talents, smacking two home runs and driving in four runs to lead Rome to a 7-2 victory over the Savannah Sand Gnats. 'I'm having fun. This is a fun job to have,' said Heyward, following a 3-for-5 night that raised his batting average to .326. He was the offensive fireworks before Saturday night's fireworks in the sky."
LM PENIS / GENIUS
This week's penis: Me, the manager, that's who!! In an attempt to emulate DLBP's victorious Week 3 strategy over yours truly, I sat my entire bullpen on Sunday afternoon...only to see Marmol get a vulture win that would have handed that category to me. (On the other hand, this decision spared me the agony of having Nathan's weak Sunday night outing count for more than keeping Morneau out of the batter's box.) Leaving Howard and his usual dose of K's on the bench on Sunday seemed like a good call, too, until he smacked an RBI triple. But honestly, who the hell would have seen that coming?
This week's genius: This was truly a team effort, but some shout outs are required: Maine and Lee for their great starts. Okajima with FOUR freakin' holds!! Crawford and Victorino for a combined 7 steals. Next week, I challenge one of you - or anyone else for that matter - to kick the hell out of FC and earn this honor for your sole enjoyment!
ENDQUOTE
"Consider yourself on notice, Equipe - BI's rolling on the win train now!!"
Thus Bonomatory. Final score: Equipe 13, BI 7.
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