Sunday, April 5, 2009

Tommy's Preseason Thoughts, Part Two


“My style is odd, like a gift from God. That's why I'm on more microphones than Ahmad Rashad.”
Tash, "Bermuda Triangle"

Opening day!!

I am excited to watch the Atlanta Braves play the Philadelphia Phillies this fine evening. I hope for an old fashioned slugfest, although in April we'll undoubtedly see the pitchers have the upper hand.

I'm told the Commissioner will be releasing his predictions any moment now, and there is a new Shortpants on the way as well. LOWV media is in high gear for this happiest of occasions.

As I wait in eagerness for the game to begin, here are my thoughts on the senior circuit.

I hate to put it that way, but when one division has five founding members of the LOWV and the other has one, it's just the way it's gotta be...

Besides, Tommy is young at heart.

ANTI-SALOON LEAGUE

The most improved team in this division has to be unBeleaguerable.

Last year, this team finished 87 games behind the de facto defending division champs, Lacey Underalls. unB is looking to shake the designation of a basement-dweller with a breakout season.

2009 might not be that season. But then again, it might.

unB has a ton of young talent just waiting to explode onto the scene. Check out this honor roll of blue chip prospects and young major league stars: Evan Longoria, Geovany Soto, The Brothers Upton, Jim Shields, Cameron Maybin, Billy Butt, Jered Weaver, Tim Beckham, Yonder Alonso.

unB was very active in trades this winter. From this vantage point, he made off like a bandit while providing reasonable value in return to enable future deals. He did a great job scouting prospects; his top two picks in 2008 and 2009 were excellent.

Now the franchise needs to translate its managerial derring-do into actual wins, and reverse a tradition of losing that has consumed its hopes again and again.

The Flash appeared ready to make a deal and move some pitchers in the offseason. It was truly a sellers' market for pitchers, with many quality arms changing hands, often at a premium. The Flash was holding tons of excellent pitchers and could benefit from outfield help.

At one point, in the frenzy following the FC-unB deal that clearly demonstrated FC was looking for another pitching deal, The Flash took to the Googlewaves to announce that he was listening to any and all deals on his SPs. At this point, multiple teams were looking for a fit with the Flash's pitching staff.

Details of one negotiation I learned about involved Flash offering to trade Roy Oswalt for one of a few top-quality outfielders who ply their trade in the Chicagoland area. My sources tell me that rumors of these trade demands leaked, and some teams decided to back off given an aversion for the high level deal Flash was looking to leverage. By mid-January, it seems, many teams were too attached to their top OFs to ship them out for an aging Astro.

Will the Flash still be looking to make a deal in 2009? It's a story to watch.

One thing I've noted is the Flash's propensity to take Junior League talent that can help him right away, and ceiling be damned. Since so many teams go in the other direction, he's been able to snag a good number of solid players that he can deploy immediately - Brett Gardner comes to mind. Along with his keen eye for cheap saves - he yoinked F. Rodney off the line midweek - this strategy will always keep Flash in the mix. But can this strategy yield the sublime?

For the first time in memory, a balanced roster takes the field for the opening Fart...

That's right, Poor Man's Fart is no longer all about pitching and now offers a potent offensive posse. Adding the punch of Carlos Lee to the PMF lineup helps the team move beyond the "four aces" philosophy that injuriously doomed so many seasons.

However, the failure of Elijah Dukes to gain a starting spot for the Nationals has to sting. Dukes has so much potential, but when you can't win a starting spot on that shit team, it really says something. PMF can slot Hunter Pence in right field and move on, but how long can you wait on a pine-riding Dukes?

I, for one, am not a fan of Dioner Navarro. As Dodger-drafted catchers go, he's pretty much a disappointment. Yo PMF, ever consider a spot of Taylor Tea? Something to consider for the future.

PMF also has love for the middle infield like you can't believe, and this has hurt him. The man's 2008 first round selection of Matt Antonelli probably still ranks as the biggest boner in the (admittedly short) Junior League annals. Gordon Beckham, on the other hand, is a stud. If he can stick at shortstop, or even 2B, he will be a beast. Beckham has power taboot and probably has the defensive chops to play MI in MLB. He also has makeup off the charts - the Air Force Academy wanted him to play QB - and thumped his way around the Cape Cod League.

Of all the moves PMF made in the offseason, the best was to slash his entire prospect list and start again with Gordon Beckham leading the way. He
just might be the most valuable fantasy player with the last name Beckham drafted in 2009.

Bonomatory Influence was only the latest team to acquire Tampa Bay outfielder BJ Upton and trade him away again.

BJ Upton is now on a three-year minimum-salary deal with a one-year extension option, under the control of unB. The origin of this contract was a late-season pickup by Lasorda's Manicotti in 2006, right around the time the keeper transition was being negotiated. That offseason, Upton, then a shortstop, was dealt to Lacey (trade #1) along with Jon Papelbon for Chase Utley. Last season, Upton was flipped along with Jon Broxton to BI (trade #2) for Carlos Lee, who promptly went down in the line of fire. Finally, Upton was shipped out of Boulder by BI (trade #3) after a mere month of service in a bid to acquire some legit young pitching talent, Cueto and G. Floyd. (The only surprise there was that no relief pitchers named Jon were included in the deal.)

All the while, he was on his original contract, which explains why this top talent only earns $4 for his services.

Even with four more seasons at piddling salary levels, Upton will be 28 years old when he hits arbitration or free agency after the 2012 season. Given the huge salary he's likely to command at that point, we just might see him traded a couple of more times before his original LOWV contract finally runs out.

That said, BI did himself a grave injustice by dispensing with BJ so lightly. I don't agree with his decision to trade Upton either. (rimshot)

Otherwise, I like Max Scherzer and Madison Bumgarner, and not much else here.

If you want to take a gander at a fine roster, why don't you click on over to the squadron of Lacey Underalls. The offense is tentpoled by Hanley, Miggy and Morneauy. Iannetta, Kemp and McLouth are universally beloved young talent. LU has long profited by taking chances on low profile young OFs, and for this season he's grabbed guys like Daniel Murphy and Shin-Soo Choo. Based on his track record, you have to expect at least one of them to hit.

All this is before you look at his pitchers, an experience akin to gawping into the void of your own mortality. Peavy, Halladay, F-Her, Bandy J, Mariano Skeletor, Papelbon, Billingsley...look out LOWV lineups.

This team should be pretty indestructible, given its amazing depth. This is important, because minor league help is a long, long way off. LU has taken the route of choosing very young players with enormous upside. It's all about value for this team. If guys like Angel Villalona and FernMart turn into bopping first basemen and five tooled OFs, LU will be the beneficiary of more amazing deals on top quality talent. So clearly we all need to root against these guys.

Lacey Underalls has to be the team most desperate for a taste of the trophy in the league. Most every season, LU is battling for the top spot, only to be shorn of its short hairs when the playoffs transpire. Will the last of the aughts hold a different fate for Lacey? Or will this team have to wait until the twentytweens to taste a title?

God damn it, I love story lines. And alliteration.

There's no doubt in my mind that the slyest team at the auction was our defending champion, the Banana Belt.

With lots of roster spots to fill and not a lot of money to do it with, BB had to find some impact players who could be had without much resistance. To pull this off, he hung around until the end of the auction, baiting his fellow GMs with opening bids for players he knew they'd covet. Then, once every other GM had filled his roster (save the absent Mothership), BB hit hard, giving a measly dollar for Shoppach, Samardjiza, John Baker and Rafael Soriano.

Now, one or two of these players might end up being worthless - the arbitration process made clear that a lot of teams hate on the Shark bigtime, and at deadline I learned he had just been sent to the minors - but Shopp for a dollar made this strategy a stellar one, even if the other three never even took the field for BB.

Kelly Shoppach was once a throw-in in a trade (for Coco Crisp) headlined by Andy Marte...and in the bizarro world of prospects reaching fruition, Marte is now for shit and Shoppach is one of the top hitting Cs in the league. He's still underrated in LOWV, and BB will prosper from that pickup. Count it, bitches!

Auction moves aside, BB yet again fields a solid lineup of totalbasemen, fireballing aces and Asians. His fortunes have long surpassed my ability to predict them, so I won't even try. Suffice it to say that one team has demonstrated its mastery over us all on several occasions, and its name is Banana Belt.

THIS WEEK'S OPPONENT

I've had more hard fought, low-scoring contests with Fecal Clatter than I can count on one hand. For whatever reason, our contrasting-yet-complimentary philosophies tend to stalemate one another. Some of my favorite moments from battling FC include the Freddy Garcia 5-inning CG that clinched a tie, astonishing my opponent, and the surprising ERA edge that snapped another tie, this time in the playoffs. The times FC has gotten the better of me, I choose to forget.

One offseason battle between us two was a bidding war for young Tommy Hanson. Both our teams wanted the immediate services of this four-pitch stud with storied Atlanta heritage and sparkling Arizona Fall League stats. Essentially, we were fighting over who would offer Hanson the bigger bonus before a 09-10 arbitration cut his deal down to the low teens. In the end, however, I was not willing to make Tommy Hanson - who some of my scouts think is merely a very good pitcher, not a great one - the highest-paid player on my team, even for a season.

Of course, the fact that I was picking ahead of FC in the draft made it a little easier to gamble that I'd wind up with Strasburg, anyway...

This year's edition of FC features more youth, as usual, and comely white men scampering over the field will bring a tear of joy to the Commish's eye for another season.
As Johan goes, so goes FC: I'm hoping the ace's traditional slow April start translates into a break for LM. Right now, the paramount concern in FC's offices is the loss of Scotty Bake Bake to arm woes. Namealike Scott Lewis will keep batters at bay until they figure out his deceptive delivery and start cranking dingers, so I think the staff will be quite all right.

It's weird to see a Jason Bay-less offense out there for FC, but the loss of Canadian quotient will probably not set the Clatter back too far with D. Wright still leading the way. So this week, let's win one for the wounded feelings of Jason Bay, banished from the team he tried so hard to lead to the mountaintop!

Right now, with the season about to begin, I have nothing but good feelings and sentiments of brotherhood for my fellow GMs. As soon as one of you defeats my team on the field, that will quickly curdle into murderous rage. So we'll see if FC can light the wick right off the bat.

But for now, I wish all of you a wonderful season, free of injuries and full of Ks and longballs. Best of luck in 2009! Until you play me, of course.

Hasta luego, fatherfuckers!

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