Tommy's Midseason Thoughts (#12)

Happy 4th of July everyone. America! Fuck yeah!

Sorry for the long delay between columns...but this one took a while to gestate.

After last week's results, we have now gone through an entire rotation and each team has played every other team in the league. There is no better time for a comprehensive evaluation of each team, because nobody can bitch that their schedule was too hard or that the sample size was too small. Also, we have an interesting situation with regard to remaining schedules - since we won't do another full rotation, some people will have it easier than others.

Therefore, by the power vested in me as the most compulsive blogger in the league this season, I present to you the Tommy's Thoughts Midseason Report.

REMAINING SCHEDULES

As the better part of the league gears up for the playoff drive, schedules will matter. A staff of trained monkeys and half-wits have been crunching numbers in the LM back office all week, and we have determined who has it easy and who has been screwed by the schedule gods.

To do so, we compiled the total records of all remaining opponents (including this week) for every team, coming up with a cumulative record thus far for that team's remaining opposition. We then broke that record into a raw score: Raw Score = Wins + (Ties * .5). This is the method Yahoo! uses to tally the standings.

For example, BI's opponents (Snatty, BB, LU, FC, unB, ERDR, PMF, ElG, Flash) have a collective .500 record - when their records are totaled, the result is 1099-1099-376. This leads to a raw score of 1287 (1099+188).

Here's a quick look at the raw score ranges and what they mean, along with how many teams fall into each category:

RS below 1260 - Very favorable schedule (2 teams)
RS between 1260 and 1270 - Favorable schedule (4 teams)
RS between 1270 and 1300 - Less-than-favorable schedule (5 teams)
RS above 1300 - Unfavorable schedule (3 teams)

TOMMY'S MIDSEASON HONORS

I've also reviewed each roster and each team's roster moves for the season thus far, and awarded prizes in the following categories:

MVP - In my opinion (which goes for all awards), the team's most valuable position player thus far. Stats are most important, followed by position. Salary not really a factor.
Cy - The team's best pitcher thus far. Again, stats are the focus and salary is disregarded.
LVP - The team's biggest disappointment / worst regular starter. Salary can be a factor if a player is drastically underperforming his contract. Young players are usually ruled out, unless they were counted on play a key role or make big bucks.
Pud - Named for Pud Galvin, "the Little Steam Engine", the first known PED user in baseball and the losingest pitcher in MLB history behind Cy Young. Goes to the team's most disappointing/worst pitcher, and again salary can be factored into this evaluation.
FA - The team's best free agent pickup of the season thus far, based largely on performance since joining the team.
Auction - The team's best pickup at the spring auction, based on performance for that team.

(Draft pick evaluations I'm going to save for later in the season, when each team's Junior League squad can be properly ranked.)

PREDICTED FINISH

A most unscientific estimate, based on the team's performance thus far, an informal evaluation of GMsmanship, the upcoming schedule difficulty, and various X-factors such as attactiveness of girlfriends and competitive fire.

OK, enough of this, let's get to the good stuff. In advance, I submit humble apologies for any errors of fact, confusion or offensive statements.

I now present to you Tommy's Midseason Thoughts.

BONOMATORY INFLUENCE

Current spot in standings: 14th
Games back of 1st place: 58.5
Games back of 6th place: 41
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1099-1099-376 (1287)
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 9th

MVP: J.D. Drew, seized by BI in a very disinterested waiver auction last summer. Turns out to be one of his best moves yet.
Cy: Ryan Dempster. OK, I'm convinced.
LVP: Gary Sheffield, whose record-breaking $31 contract has produced very little in the way of tangible benefit to BI.
Pud: Dontrelle Willis - who saw that coming? Oh yeah, everyone.
FA: Braden Looper
Auction: Hiroki Kuroda

Predicted finish: 14th

Notes: There are some really good pieces here, including some nice contracts and quality players. BI is also the most active this season that I can recall him being, and he certainly handed my ass to me when we played. The issue is depth and consistency. When his key guys are off or break down, it's rout city. When they're locked in, the team doesn't fill enough categories to have the chance to blow out its opponents. In this league, that equates to a last place finish.

unBELEAGUERABLE

Current spot in standings: 13th
Games back of 1st place: 50.5
Games back of 6th place: 33
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1114-1104-356 (1292)
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 11th

MVP: Pat the Bat (or as I now call him, "P de B")
Cy: Bobby Jenks
LVP: Billy Butt. Wasn't this guy supposed to hit like Ichiro in addition to looking like he ate Ichiro? That old joke was a lot funnier when he wasn't just a fat waste of space making a double digit salary.
Pud: Beatt Mywifers, who now languishes in AAA after blowing up unB's pitching stats all season.
FA: Gavin Floyd
Auction: Geovany Soto - unB's best move all year was shelling out some bucks for this stud.

Predicted finish: 13th

Notes: It hasn't been the greatest season for unB, but let it never be said that he didn't go down fighting. I was at his house last Sunday as he inspected his matchup with LU and broke down what he was going to need to do to stay in it. Ultimately, his team battled to the end to narrow the gap. A lot of GMs would have given up on that matchup. Here's hoping another year of seasoning for some of his young studs will put unB in the conversation in 2009. For now, he ought to dump veterans for prospects and keep building that young nucleus.

EL GUAPO

Current spot in standings: 12th
Games back of 1st place: 42.5
Games back of 6th place: 25
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1077-1128-369 (1261.5)
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 4th

MVP: Madonna's Bat Boy, who else?
Cy: Daniel Haren, with an honorable mention to the nearly flawless Lidge.
LVP: Barry Bonds, honestly this makes zero sense to me.
Pud: Tom Gorzelanny, the clock struck midnight and he turned back into a pumpkin. An ugly pumpkin with a name suited for a ugbo.
FA: Skip Schumaker
Auction: Kerry Wood - I'll admit I was most skeptical, but this turned into a genius pickup.

Predicted finish: 11th

Notes: The schedule looks good, and there are some elite players on this team. However, in evaluating the next few weeks, I don't have a lot of confidence in Guapo doing the little things that it takes to effect a dramatic rise in the rankings. His biggest win is 11-6 this season, and you need blowouts to jump from 12th into the playoff picture. Why play virtually without an offensive bench? Why leave an open spot at RP when Brad Ziegler is racking up holds mere miles away? Far be it from me to backseat-manage...aw, who am I kidding, that's practically what this column is all about.

SNATURALS

Current spot in standings: 11th
Games back of 1st place: 38.5
Games back of 6th place: 21
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1101-1098-375 (1288.5)
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 10th

MVP: XNady, once kept on the roster as the "team mascot," now carries the team and might get traded to a better club that can put more men on base ahead of him and drive him around the bases with some bats behind him. Stay tuned.
Cy: Ervin Santana, a one-man advertisement for the wisdom of swapping solid but aging vets for struggling, high-ceiling youngsters after playoff dreams unravel.
LVP: Orlando Cabrera
Pud: "Zicasso"
FA: Mike Mussina, supposedly washed up but rejuvenated by the inspiring words of Hank Steinbrenner.
Auction: John Damon

Predicted finish: 12th

Notes: Snatty's last three scores were blowout losses - 14-3 to unB, 12-6 to Equipe, 13-5 to PMF. He beat LU and FC, but that doesn't do you much good when you bend over immediately afterwards. He has been known to take his eye off the ball, which pretty much rules out a miracle run to a playoff spot. Snatty needs to just keep making canny trades and build up his team for next year.

Patience will pay off.

VICIOUS RUMORS

Current spot in standings: 10th
Games back of 1st place: 34.5
Games back of 6th place: 17
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1122-1082-370 (1307)
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 12th

MVP: Ryan Braun, with an honorable mention to Youk.
Cy: Josh Beckett
LVP: Troy Tulowitzki, who has been either injured or horrible
Pud: Oliver Perez, the Jekkyl and Hyde of SPs
FA: Andy Sonnanstine, who is fighting an uphill battle in the midst of the Tampa Bay cadre of high-ceiling young SPs, but continues to get it done with K/BB mastery.
Auction: Colby Rasmus? Not a great performance at auction for this team.

Predicted finish: 10th

Notes: VR has heated up with three straight wins, but a look at the upcoming schedule sends a steady stream of piss into his cornflakes. I think he will hold off Guapo to maintain the 10th spot, but a playoff run seems unrealistic at this point. He'll definitely have the opportunity to play spoiler down the stretch, however, with games against the top 4 teams in the current standings - a role that has catapulted some teams to success the following season. Best of luck, VR, except for next week.

the BANANA BELT

Current spot in standings: 9th
Games back of 1st place: 31.5
Games back of 6th place: 14
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1080-1124-370 (1265)
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 5th (tie)

MVP: Ian Kinsler
Cy: CC Saba, who shook off some early rust to reestablish his dominance. Could be hurling for an awesome team by the fall, and destroying BB's opposition.
LVP: all catchers. Jason Kendall was bad, Jason Varitek was horrid - as soon as he joined BB, the latter cooled off in a hurry and soon reached subzero. Now Pudge is on the spot.
Pud: Homer Bailey / Francisco Liriano / Yovani Gallardo. BB had a lot staked on these young pitchers who rarely saw MLB starts this season, and got shelled when they did.
FA: David Murphy
Auction: Masa Kobayashi? Bandy Winn has disappointed. Shoulda hung on to Slowey.

Predicted finish: 8th

Notes: 14 games out of the playoffs is not an insurmountable deficit, and the schedule is very friendly - BB doesn't have to run the LU/FC gauntlet, unlike a lot of his opponents. Ruling BB out of the playoff picture is like pointing a loaded gun at your nutsack, but I just can't foresee a collapse from the teams in front of him, who have been actively working to improve their rosters. I have little doubt that this is going to wind up with me getting trounced by BB in the playoffs (or, horror of horrors, knocked out of the playoffs by BB!) and publicly humiliated for this call. So be it.

the FLASH

Current spot in standings: 8th
Games back of 1st place: 23.5
Games back of 6th place: 6
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1099-1101-374 (1286)
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 7th (tie)

MVP: Dan Uggla, who hasn't just powered the Flash, he's begun to raise questions about who the most valuable U-named 2B in the league is.
Cy: Cole Hamels, who carried this staff through the first rotation.
LVP: Akinori Iwamura, one of the few outright disappointments. Tough to find an LVP here; most of this team's shortcomings have been through inconsistency, not outright suckage.
Pud: Ian Snell, publicly denounced by Flash before he dropped him.
FA: Ryan Ludwick
Auction: I'm not a fan of any of his auction pickups.

Predicted finish: 7th

Notes: If being on the playoff bubble isn't bad enough, Flash will have to hold off BB just to maintain his current position. I wouldn't rule him out of the playoff mix, especially with the great moves he's made in recent days to bolster his pitching staff. My concern with the Flash is his penchant for the occasional inexplicable blowout loss to a bad team. One or two more of those and he can kiss the 'yoffs goodbye. Still, I loved his moves to grab Dick Hard and John Dankin' Dronugs. If his awesome hitters get locked in, and his staff is hurling strikes, get the eff out of the way.

the MOTHERSHIP

Current spot in standings: 7th
Games back of 1st place: 23.5
Games back of 6th place: 6
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1118-1072-384 (1310)
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 14th

MVP: Josh Hamilton
Cy: Andy Pettitte, barely beating out Joe Saunders. The Ship has gotten some SPs to step up to an unexpectedly high level for him, which is a big part of his success.
LVP: Paul Konerko, who has been a surprising non-factor this season. Last year he exploded after Memorial Day, but a chance at another such surge was cut short by injury.
Pud: Trevor Hoffman. Not only is he no longer the best reliever on this team (that'd be Rauch), he's not even the best Padre reliever on this team (Heath Bell).
FA: Ryan Doumit - As Ween might wail, Who's your papa? Ryan Doumit! This is the shit!
Auction: Kosuke Fukudome, who I give most of the credit for rejuvenating this team. When Mike says "Fuckyoudome" with such joy in his voice, he makes the world a better place.

Predicted finish: 9th

Notes: It was a real stomach punch to look at the schedule numbers and realize that the Ship had the worst draw of all. His chances of holding off two perennial playoff teams, including a dynastic champion, while leapfrogging the equally hungry PMF took a real hit when he landed the most difficult schedule. I'm pulling for you, though, Mikey, and nothing would give this GM more happiness (aside from my own success, of course) than to see you make your way into the playoffs. For those of you who think your team sucks and there is no hope, take a look at this success story. All it takes is some dedication and a trip to the Fukudome and you'll be right back in the mix again.

POOR MAN'S FART

Current spot in standings: 6th
Games back of 1st place: 17.5
Games ahead of 7th place: 6
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1074-1126-374 (1261)
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 3rd

MVP: Lurkman, Bance Lurkman.
Cy: Roy Halladay. Declared washed up by FC and LU in a preseason Shortpants, he has racked up an astonishing 6 CGs.
LVP: all second basemen, a trouble spot for PMF all year. I think he may have hit on an answer with Casilla, although he's already shelling out for international scouting options...
Pud: Chris Young - though it's hard to criticize anyone on this glorious staff.
FA: Mike Aviles, who has been a real surprise. KC's top SS prospect (and Chocolate Bayou Turd, aka FC prospect) Mike Moustakas was recently moved to third base, which may presage a long run for Aviles, as long as he keeps hitting.
Auction: George Sherrill, best appreciated when his name is pronounced "jaw-juh sheh-rull" a la Kate Hepburn or some other old-time movie dame.

Predicted finish: 6th

Notes: I bring glad tidings. PMF's chances of hanging on to a playoff spot are very strong. His competition has a collective losing record, he made a smart trade to balance his team with a bit more pop, and with a healthy Halladay he is looking like a championship sleeper. The universally-acknowledged tragic figure of the 2007 season, PMF regrouped, stuck with his strength, and then adjusted down the stretch. He may have to fight off BB, but he's begun to do so already with a 13-8 advantage in their matchup (through this AM).

EQUIPE ROI du RADEAU

Current spot in standings: 5th
Games back of 1st place: 11
Games ahead of 7th place: 12.5
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1103-1105-366 (1286)
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 7th (tie)

MVP: Brian McCann, one of the best catchers in the game today
Cy: Brandon Webb - still love his trade to snag this guy late last season. Yet another example of a good late-season trade from a team on the outs.
LVP: Casey Kotchman
Pud: Micah Owings
FA: Carlos Quentin, arguably the best FA pickup in the league this season
Auction: Troy Glaus, although he really should have hung onto Milton Bradley.

Predicted finish: 4th

Notes: Daniel Plainview has his team in great position - just above the scrum for 6th place that is quickly developing, with his roster in good shape, a possible Soriano return for the stretch run, and a relatively easy schedule. Not only can he maintain, I think he can even move up. And with B Webb pitching gems in the playoffs, this could be a tough team to beat - although his only playoff win in franchise history is a meaningless 3rd place game against a demoralized LM. I can't say enough about this team's capacity to surprise, though, given that many scratched their heads at his preseason moves and bought his smokescreen about building for the next decade, while noting his poor finish last season. It's quite possible that the season will end with Neil's team smashing in our heads with a figurative bowling pin and declaring, "I'm finished!!"

FECAL CLATTER

Current spot in standings: 4th
Games back of 1st place: 9
Games ahead of 7th place: 14.5
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1062-1130-382 (1253)
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 1st

MVP: David Wright
Cy: Jim Shields, with a K/BB of 4.40 so far this season.
LVP: Victor Martinez and his OPS+ of 78, way way way below his usual before going down with an injury. His replacement, Seattle C/DH Jeff Clement, has tallied an OPS+ of 59 in his absence.
Pud: Rafael Betancourt
FA: Brandon Morrow, very promising as both a reliever and potential ace.
Auction: Jay Bruce. Even though everyone had to know he was going after Jaybird, he still got him at a reasonable price. Well done.

Predicted finish: 3rd

Notes: As has been noted often in this space and elsewhere, FC has a lineup filled with quality bashers who don't whiff overmuch and fill up a stat sheet real nice. While his perennial ace, Johan Santana, has startlingly taken a step back since moving to the NL, his staff has managed to counterpunch with dominance from Shields, good performances from Todd Lilly and a healthy AJ Burnett. With 4 starters boasting 100+ K's (and Wolf knocking on the door), FC isn't all stick and no arm. This team is more balanced than its rep suggests.

However, over the past month FC has gone 29-47, losing to El Guapo and getting housed by Snatty. This has corresponded with a slide from 1st to 4th in the standings. Not a good sign. While I expect the Clatter to recover their equilibrium, one more slip up and the regular season crown could elude their stinky brown grasp. The easiest schedule should help, though.

D'LUCIOUS BITCH PIES

Current spot in standings: 3rd
Games back of 1st place: 8.5
Games ahead of 7th place: 15
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1127-1085-362 (1308)
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 13th

MVP: Manny Ramirez, leading the league in senior citizens thrown to the ground
Cy: Tim Lincecum
LVP: Alex Rios. What the hell happened to this guy? Did he catch Vernon Wells Disease?
Pud: CJ Wilson. When your team's most impressive victory to date came as a direct result of benching a player, you know that player sucks.
FA: AJ Pierzynski, a gigantic douche who claims to be Barack Obama's favorite baseball player. If true, I will factor this into my decision in November. Tally one point for Johnny Mac in that department - I'm sure his favorite is one of the studly young white Dbacks that dot FC's roster. Good FA pickup for DLBP, regardless.
Auction: Rick Ankiel

Predicted finish: 5th

Notes: DLBP has risen to within striking distance of 1st place by pummelling bad teams, playing tough against solid teams, but his record against the other top teams is mixed. After memorably bludgeoning LM, he was then thrashed by FC and LU. All three teams are on his upcoming schedule. I don't see much letup in a set of future opponents packed with teams fighting for the yoffs. Thus, while I think DLBP is clearly one of the marquee franchises in LOWV at the moment, I foresee a slide of a few places in the standings. The Pies have a strong lineup, top to bottom, and while his pitching staff is uneven, he has some excellent arms. This roster is unstoppable when all the gears are turning - he'll have to show he can get it done against the playoff teams he'll tune up against over the next two months.

(Also - A hilarious story about Pierzynski I found online: "During a 2004 Spring Training game, while catching, Pierzynski took a pitch to the groin and fell instantly to the ground in pain. Trainer Stan Conte rushed from the dugout to his side and immediately inquired, "how does it feel?" AJ responded directly by saying, "like this" and kneed Conte in the groin, dropping him to the ground.")

the LACEY UNDERALLS

Current spot in standings: 2nd
Games back of 1st place: 1
Games ahead of 7th place: 22.5
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1080-1124-370 (1265)
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 5th

MVP: Hanley Ramirez, 20 dongs, 21 steals. Nuff said.
Cy: Edinson Volquez, ranked all season as the #1 "Key to Success" in Yahoo head-to-head leagues
LVP: Lastings Milledge
Pud: King Felix, who contines to draw one of the highest salaries in the league while delivering maddeningly inconsistent performance and frequent injuries. When he's on, there are few better. But he isn't always on.
FA: The "unquestionably genius" acquisition of Nate McLouth
Auction: Volquez - the best pickup by ANY team in the 2008 auction.

Predicted finish: 2nd

Notes: It's looking like a fight to the finish between LU and LM, with a few teams waiting outside the ring in case of a double knockdown. Probably "too close to call" territory, but I'd be a bitch if I picked the other guy to lower expectations, so I have LU falling just short. Obviously, our teams' Week 19 contest will be huge, since both of us have relatively light schedules otherwise. But a shocking smackdown from an unexpected source could turn this race, as it has so often in the past.

One more scheduling note - have you ever noticed that FC and LU are always back-to-back in the schedule? I don't think this is a coincidence. Commissioner Sahl speculated to me that Mama Jams waits as long as possible to sign up for the league so her team doesn't have to face FC (obviously the first to sign up) more than once a season. Gaming the scheduling system is fine strategy and all, but ideally our schedules would be assigned at random. The LOWV fans are the losers when one of our league's most heated rivalries only comes to the fore once a season. Can we do something about this in 2009?

Tough to find fault anywhere on LU's roster, quite frankly. This team is a lean, mean pitching machine with tons of versatile offensive players and one of the league's supreme benches. A regular season crown would result in a nice dinner out for LU damsel K. Lemerise, but what this organization really hungers after is the elusive championship so long denied. The playoffs will be where this fantastic team proves its true worth.

LASORDA'S MANICOTTI

Current spot in standings: 1st
Games back of 1st place: N/A
Games ahead of 7th place: 23.5
Remaining Schedule and Raw Score: 1053-1120-401
Remaining Schedule Favorability Rank: 2nd

MVP: Chase Utley
Cy: Cliff Lee - sure he won 18 games a few years ago, but NOBODY saw this one coming when he was sent down to the minors last season. Thanks for dropping him, Mothership!
LVP: Vernon Wells, who hasn't been that bad when healthy, but certainly not the Vernon Wells I traded for a year and a half ago. Adam LaRoche has sucked, but he always sucks in the first half.
Pud: Rich Hill. I don't want to talk about it.
FA: Milton Bradley, although Lee has to be considered a very close second. But Milton been berry berry good to my stats and this column with his dongsmanship and general insanity.
Auction: Joe Nathan

Predicted finish: 1st

Notes: Although two key players have gone down to potentially season-ending injuries and another can't throw a strike to save his life even in a rookie league, LM hangs in there with big production from our stars and our unusual skill at finding diamonds in the rough. Can we make it to the finish line ahead of the pack? It certainly seems possible, but our pitching staff must be consistent and our hitters must stay healthy. This franchise, like the ones chasing it, has no higher goal than to end the one-team hammerlock over the championship.

SCHEDULE FAVORABILITY RECAP

14. Mship - 1310
13. DLBP - 1308
12. VR - 1307
11. unB - 1292
10. Snatty - 1288.5
9. BI - 1287
7t. Flash - 1286
7t. ERDR - 1286
5t. BB - 1265
5t. LU - 1265
4. Guapo - 1261.5
3. PMF - 1261
2. LM - 1253.5
1. FC - 1253

PREDICTED FINISH RECAP

14. BI
13. unB
12. Snatty
11. Guapo
10. VR
9. Mship
8. BB
7. Flash
6. PMF
5. DLBP
4. ERDR
3. FC
2. LU
1. LM

Prove me wrong, motherfuckers.