Loose Lips Sink Ships: Episode XV--A Toast To El Guapo

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Episode XV--A Toast To El Guapo

This week Mike welcomes his go-to punching bag El Guapo for a fascinating episode of Shortpants. Neil's Team and FC join the discussion as they probe the twisted mind of a Giants fan, an upstart contender, a conflicted soul who's an unabashed veteran lover and a Jeremy Hermida proponent, and a dude with the least interesting favorite players imaginable.
And remember when the compact disc became the dominant recording medium? And there was nothing hipper than for a band to bury a not-quite-good-enough-to-be-on-the-album-but-sure-to-be-appreciated-by-hardcore-fans song as a hidden track? Us neither. But our grandpa told us it was cool as shit.

Episode XVa
Episode XVb

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3/22/2007: Commissioner"s Preview -- Expansion Teams

The expansion teams enter at a distinct disadvantage as they make their ways through the shark infested waters of a first year in the LOWV. And the most competitive season in history, chock full o’ strong teams. Despite starting out with a handicap, they wouldn’t have been invited to the league if the Expansion Committee didn’t believe in their ability to field a competitive team and evolve over the years to come. The Mothership
The Mothership brings the fierce funk with its power bats, with especially fine pickups of Adam Dunn and Rickie Weeks, who are primed to explode. And whiff. And hit lots of lazy fly balls. And ground into DPs. And, aside from Weeks, stand statue-still upon reaching base.

Four former aces make up a steady bloc for the staff, and if at least three of them turn in their usual performances, the Ship will surely upset a few titans of the league along the way. The bullpen is practically nonexistent. This team’s shortcomings are, quite simply, reflective of a GM new to the league who will undoubtedly figure this out very quickly.

HITTING: C
SPEED/RUN-SCORING: D
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: B
STARTING PITCHING: B-
BULLPEN: D
PROSPECTS: D-
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 13/14

El Guapo
Woe be the expansion teams this year, easily the most competitive in LOWV history. Sadly, it’s left El Guapo with a serious climb. Aside from stars like Teixeira and A-Rod (and a healthy Bonds), there’s nobody in the lineup that does much of anything particularly well. A lineup of reliable mediocrity, with only a few (Hermida, Crisp, and maybe Bradley) more likely to improve their stats than they are to regress from last year’s numbers.

Ben Sheets is the best pitcher in the National League when healthy, but even his prolonged brilliance won’t be enough to elevate this staff of untested (Braden Looper), unproven (Gorzelanny) and disappointing (Lowry). Can Lidge recover? Does Weathers provide saves-by-committee? Does Timlin throw 30 innings? Does Brian Wilson harness his stuff and overtake Benitez? What appears to double damn El Guapo’s chances is a fairly obvious West Coast bias; nothing spells doom to a fantasy squad like alligience to one’s favorite team and market. Fantasy success comes when one’s fantasy squad is their favorite team.

HITTING: C
SPEED/RUN-SCORING: C
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: C+
STARTING PITCHING: C-
BULLPEN: C
PROSPECTS: D
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 14/14

3/22/2007: Commissioner"s Preview -- Bona Fide Contenders

FECAL CLATTER
In addition to provoking awe and a head-shakingly respectful sense of helplessness about such superhuman genius, FC has long been widely revered throughout the league for its organizational credo of a balanced approach. If this team was located in Phoenix, it would surely receive scorn for a home-team bias. Yet league projections find FC at or near the top of the league in average and OPS and potential 20/20 men. The team has gone heavy on the youth movement, which has been its perennial weakness. Half of its opening-day starting lineup has yet to play a full-season in the majors, a testament to front management’s foresight, vanity about scouting ability and thrift.

FC takes a similar approach to pitching, seeking a balance between proven vets, high risk/high reward players at reasonable salaries, and a stable of young fireballers. And as with the offense, very little is guaranteed here, but also like offense, such are the luxuries a commodity like Johan allows. Rich Hill, Matt Cain, and Burnett can absolutely dominate, and by Burnett’s annual mid-season DL stint, the team seems to be gambling that out of Kuo, Garza and Clemens another dominant arm will emerge. FC’s fans, who have had to sweat through the late innings with a bottle of Advil at the ready since the franchise’s launch, won’t be surprised to see that the bullpen is a calculated crapshoot.

HITTING: A-
SPEED/RUN-SCORING: B+
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: B
STARTING PITCHING: B+
BULLPEN: B
PROSPECTS: A-
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 1/14

THE LACEY UNDERALLS
Besides Morneau, Cabrera and Sheffield, Lacey’s offense is promising and coming off big, above-average years. The question is whether they are repeatable, and in the infield, even a minor slump from Sanchez or Ramirez still provides solid value at the position. It’s in the outfield where Lacey’s weakness lies. It’s a young crew, but one with limited ceilings. Still, it’s a sturdy enough bunch to split offensive categories each week, which might be all it needs to do given the strength of the staff.

Any parent that wants to teach their children what pitching is all about need only take them to an LU/PMF game. Like his brother-in-arm, LU’s top-3 are all currently or soon-to-be potential (or already) Cy Young winners, with the fourth just outside the top tier. It’s on the strength of these aces that make Lacey the projected leader in ERA, second in WHIP and fourth in K/BB. The rest of the staff is well assembled, putting equal weight on a fat-ass injury prone former ace, a promising flamethrower who can finally see with major league experience, and a steady strike-thrower in a pitcher’s park. With his elite starting core, these last three enable Lacey to play matchups rather than depend on these unsteady every-start pitchers. The ‘pen is equally impressive, with a WHIP projected just above 1.

HITTING: B+
SPEED/RUN-SCORING: B+
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: B-
STARTING PITCHING: A
BULLPEN: A-
PROSPECTS: B
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 2/14

THE BANANA BELT
One of the few truisms of the LOWV: He who bets against Banana Belt bets on his own demise. The perpetual contender and last year’s champ will once again need to tap on his eccentric trade strategies and free agent pick-ups to fortify a roster that starts the season with several notable holes. Offensively the team is a frontrunner to lead the league in batting average, anchored by perennial high-.200s/low-.300s hitters like Piazza, Alou and Ichiro. The team also looks to score a ton of runs, although its power threats and RBImen Encarnacion, Zimmerman and Holliday are likely to continue their ascent or at least maintain their status (still, why anyone will pitch to Zimmerman in that lineup boggles the mind).

The BB staff took a huge hit with the loss of Liriano. About the only sure things about the starting staff is CC Sabathia lamenting about all the middling honkies in it. The bullpen is a clear strength, anchored by Justin Duchsscherescshcer, the highest-paid set-up man in the LOWV by a comfortable margin. Aside from the starting pitching, this is an elite team positioned for annual playoff runs.

HITTING: A-
SPEED/RUN-SCORING: A-
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: B-
STARTING PITCHING: B-
BULLPEN: B
PROSPECTS: B
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 3/14

3/22/2007: Commissioner"s Preview -- Likely Contenders

Not surprisingly, it's a veteran crew who knows what it takes to win in the LOWV. Besides a clear standout as the best team in the league, picking the order of the top six has been changed more often than an old man’s diapers at the country’s finest nursing home. It requires a man smarter than this Commissioner to discern which piece of shit came from a daily fast-food eater from that of the sushi connoisseur. These rankings could change with the smallest personnel change or injury. This year, the league will be won by he who picks up the right FA at the right time.

POOR MAN'S FART
PMF sports above-average dongsmen at nearly every offensive position, and even better, most play in dong-friendly parks and bat in well-protected, dong-friendly lineups that offer good pitches to hit and have good RBI opportunities. Speed is lacking, as is batting average, but the latter is somewhat offset by promising OPS projections. Decent youngsters off the bench complete a harmonious offense.

Alongside Equipe and LU, PMF’s starting pitching is the cream of the LOWV crop. But what sets PMF in a league of his own as the league’s finest staff is that his pitchers still have considerable upside. Any of his top four could conceivably finish in the top 4 of the Cy Young voting at the end of the year. Rather than pursue a C-level closer that might accrue saves but post below-average numbers, PMF has wisely collected affordable holdsmasters with good numbers, a few of whom could very easily slip into the closer role.

HITTING: B-
SPEED/RUN-SCORING: C+
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: A-
STARTING PITCHING: A
BULLPEN: B+
PROSPECTS: C
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 4/14

LASORDA'S MANICOTTI
Along with Flash, Lasorda boasts enjoys the league’s most impressive offense, with impressive balance between power, speed, run scoring and OPS. Still, it’ll be difficult for Ryan Howard to do anything BUT regress given his relatively low contact rate, though the diminished performances from Howard and Thomas compared to last year will be more than offset by the return of Derrek Lee, LM’s first pick last year. A relatively deep bench rounds out this impressive cadre of swatmeisters.

It’s on defense where Lasorda’s weaknesses will be exploited. Wang and Verlander dramatically outperformed expectations, and the latter is sure to show lingering after-effects from all the innings he threw last year. Brad Penny’s the fourth starter for the Dodgers and the fourth starter for LM, rarely a good correlation for fantasy success. When Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla are the biggest strikeout artists, expect LM to be near the league lead in games started and HRs allowed, and the smelliest in WHIP and K/BB. The suspect bullpen won’t do much to contribute. LM’s going to have to mash his way to the top of the league this year.

HITTING: B+
SPEED/RUN-SCORING: A-
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: A
STARTING PITCHING: B-
BULLPEN: C+
PROSPECTS: C-
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 5/14

EQUIPE ROI DU RADEAU
Last year’s strongest expansion team stumbled a bit out of the gate at the auction, dumping nearly his entire budget into pitching and leaving him unable to address his offensive holes, which are filled with second- and third-tier players. Expect this hyperactive, imaginative and talented wheeler-and-dealer to be busy in the season’s first half, as Delmon Young could face some growing pains in the early months of the season and Josh Barfield adapts to the AL’s superior pitching quality. Will he finally find a taker for Granderson? Despite his poor pitch selection and shoddy batting average, Burrell was a sensible pickup, and a flier on Dan Johnson could pay valuable dividends at the IF slot. Loney and Dukes may not contribute full-season stats right away, but are valuable talents to have socked away.

An impressive, albeit overpaid, pitching staff headed by three current and future aces. Still, Haren is most likely to emerge as the stud here, with Matsuzaka getting familiar with Major League hitting, the five-man rotation and the occasional jeers of ignorant fans, Carpenter struggling for wins on a terrible Cardinals team, and Jason Schmidt’s strikeout abilities diminishing as his WHIP goes up. Equipe appears to either have recognized the vulnerabilities of his “aces” or is preparing to trade one, as he’s stockpiled mediocre veteran and prospect starters at the expense of his bullpen. Stars of the caliber of Shields and Wagner are bound to get pretty lonely out there.

HITTING: B SPEED/RUN-SCORING: B
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: B-
STARTING PITCHING: A-
BULLPEN: C-
PROSPECTS: A-
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 6/14

3/22/2007: Commissioner"s Preview -- On the Bubble

Vicious Rumors
VR has transformed itself from laughingstock to respectability, assembling the most –aul-filled starting lineup in the LOWV. This lineup can also hit like a mo-fo, with players at every position that can at least flirt with -- and in most cases aggressively bone -- a .300 average. Though no classic sluggers, there are plenty of well-rounded middle-of-the-lineup batsmen who can go 30/100 with their eyes closed. VR smartly spent big bucks on two outfield bats, and while he might have overpaid by a few bucks on each, he could afford to, coming in with deep pockets. VR’s season hinges on two things: first, the Markakis signing, which given his CF eligibility, could prove quite the coup. He’ll need to step it up to justify his paycheck and take the heat off Ibanez, who dramatically outperformed last year and has no choice but regression.

The second must for VR is Rich Har. Harden has been the face of the franchise for time immemorial, and if he can continue the dominance he’s shown when healthy and this spring, can carry this surprisingly strong staff. Harang, Beckett, Olsen and Lilly all have 200K potential, and take the heat off the Lieber and Robertson until Lester gets the call-up. The bullpen is a liability, with two closers on shitty teams and a dearth of holds.

HITTING: A
SPEED/RUN-SCORING: C+
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: B
STARTING PITCHING: B+
BULLPEN: C-
PROSPECTS: C+
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 7/14

D’Lucious Bitch Pies
After suffering perhaps the roughest initial landing on the LOWV runway ever, DLBP turned the franchise around in the second half last year, fastballing eggs at the faces of severe contenders in the pennant drive. Offensively the team is a bit of a teeter-totter, with several players posting stats last year way above their typical performance and likely to come down to earth. With Manny as the middle beam, there are a number of talented hitters primed to continue to improve, including Cuddyer, Rios and wunderkind Alex Gordon, who may have a rocky entry to the bigs but is a can’t miss prospect can carry DLBP for the next decade.

There’s a lot of upside in the staff as well, balanced by a Carlos Zambrano who will pitch himself stupid auditioning for a megabucks contract. Bronson Arroyo will once again start pitching like Bronson Arroyo, but Kazmir and Bush will continue to build on last’s year’s numbers, Vazquez was a victim of bad luck more than decreased skills, and Lincecum could have a Francisco Liriano-like midseason fantasy impact if the Giants are smart enough to keep him as a starter. The bullpen boasts an elite closer and a several elite holdsmiths. DLBP itself appears a year or two away from elite status, but could easily make the playoffs this year if the fates align.

HITTING: A-
SPEED/RUN-SCORING: A-
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: C+
STARTING PITCHING: B+
BULLPEN: B
PROSPECTS: B+
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 8/14

Bonomatory Influence
A late attendee to the Auction significantly boosted his 2007 lineup with cheap, sensible pick-ups of veterans who weren’t the sexiest of picks but offered incredible value and reliable numbers. The lack of young talent clearly signifies BI sees this as its year to make a return to the playoffs. Adrien Beltre looks to build on his quietly tremendous second half, Orlando Hudson is one of fantasy baseball’s great underrated second-sackers, Kenji Johjima will undoubtedly improve as he adjusts to major league pitching, and Rocco Baldelli, if he can finally stay healthy, is a potential 40/40 guy. Still, there are the typical question marks associated with a vet-heavy lineup. Can Rolen’s shoulder rebound and will he pout every time a drunken LaRussa demands a ride home? Will mega-contract signee Carlos Lee stay motivated to play through nagging injuries and avoid the lure of Texas BBQ enough to keep his weight below 350 pounds? Will Nick Johnson ever walk again?

The staff is a concern, anchored by an underperforming and overpaid (albeit charismatic!) Dontrelle Willis and budding ace Jeremy Bonderman. This starters will win a lot of games, but the peripherals will be below average. With closer BJ Ryan the only lights-out stud in the bullpen, they can’t help the starters with ratio stats.

HITTING: B
SPEED/RUN-SCORING: B-
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: B+
STARTING PITCHING: C+
BULLPEN: B-
PROSPECTS: C
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 9/14

3/22/2007: Commissioner"s Preview -- Serious Obstacles to Overcome

The Flash
Odd that a clubhouse where Pujols, Mauer, Hafner, JD Drew and Tejada shower together ranks this low. There’s no doubt this team can flat-out rake, a lineup that would undoubtedly cause Zach Greinke’s Asperger’s to flare up irreversibly. But they are free-swingers, prone to ending rallies with double plays, and slower than constipated molasses.

What hampers Flash is a subpar staff of crappy K-rates and high WHIPs, plus requires the team to carry an extra starter rather than fill out its pen with 5 hurlers. He absolutely requires Cole Hamels and Ian Snell to continue their maturation successfully, and creaky penmates Isringhausen and Wickman to remember their Geritol.

HITTING: A
SPEED/RUN-SCORING: C-
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: A
STARTING PITCHING: B-
BULLPEN: C+
PROSPECTS: C
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 10/14

unBeleaguerable
The team from the nation’s capital lives and dies on it’s bullpen and speed, two areas of dubious overall value over the course of the season. Last-minute decisions to keep several expensive players headed into the auction cost unB dearly, leaving him with little room to maneuver, a misjudgment compounded by over-exuberant bidding on players he dumped the following morning. As a result, unB’s been forced to pick over the free agency pool and had to overpay to build his offense. Heavily dependent on leadoff hitters, the team will score runs, swipe bags and flash a snappy BA, but RBIs are going to be hard to come by. With Durham and Crede unlikely to repeat career years, and Guillen and Helton ticking injury time bombs, unB will need to lean heavily on promising young players who might not be ready to carry such a heavy load.

Rookie phenom Jered Weaver was expected to fill out a promising one-two punch at the top of the staff with Brett Myers, but his shoulder problems, declining K rate and tendency to leave the ball up in the zone suggest that he will not remain nearly as dominant as he was during his first time around the league. Little needs to be said about the bullpen, which is certain to be dominant. Still, how badly is Putz hurt, and is Jenks breaking down? unB simply cannot afford to lose them.

HITTING: A-
SPEED/RUN-SCORING: B+
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: C
STARTING PITCHING: B-
BULLPEN: A
PROSPECTS: B
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 11/14

The Snaturals
Whoa, poor Snatty, bam ba lam. Whoa boy Snatty, bam ba lam. Ol’ Snatty got some speed. Bam ba lam. Ol’ Snatty got offensive needs. Bam ba lam. Papi and Thome swat dongs. Bam ba lam. Derek Jeter suck dongs. Bam ba lam.

Oh, man Snatty, Bam ba lam. Whoa dear Snatty, Bam ba lam. Capuano’s on a roll. Bam ba lam. Next four 150 years old. Bam ba lam. Pen accrues major saves. Bam ba lam. But can they save ol’ Snatty from his speed-lovin’ ways? Bam ba lam.

HITTING: C
SPEED/RUN-SCORING: A
POWER/RUN-PRODUCTION: C-
STARTING PITCHING: C+
BULLPEN: A
PROSPECTS: F
PREDICTED 2007 FINISH: 12/14

Loose Lips Sink Ships

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Episode XV--A Toast To El Guapo

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The Bullpen

Tasty Snausage Links

Blog Archive

3/22/2007: Commissioner"s Preview -- Expansion Teams

3/22/2007: Commissioner"s Preview -- Bona Fide Contenders

3/22/2007: Commissioner"s Preview -- Likely Contenders

3/22/2007: Commissioner"s Preview -- On the Bubble

3/22/2007: Commissioner"s Preview -- Serious Obstacles to Overcome

2/27/2007: New Logo Introduced